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Methodology

How MarketForecast collects data, calculates technical indicators, and generates AI-powered market scenarios.

Overview

MarketForecast aggregates real-time market data from multiple public APIs, computes standard technical indicators from price history, and generates structured market analysis using a large language model (Claude by Anthropic). All analysis is refreshed on a scheduled basis and cached to ensure consistent, up-to-date information.

This platform is designed for informational and educational purposes. It presents data and model-generated analysis — not investment advice. See the disclaimer section below.

Technical Indicators

All indicators are computed from the closing price history fetched from the data sources above. No third-party indicator libraries are used — calculations are implemented directly from standard definitions.

RSI (14)RSI = 100 − 100/(1+RS)Relative Strength Index over 14 periods. Above 70 = overbought, below 30 = oversold.
MACDEMA(12) − EMA(26)Moving Average Convergence Divergence. Positive = bullish momentum, negative = bearish.
Bollinger Band Position(Price − Lower) / (Upper − Lower)Where price sits within the 20-period Bollinger Bands. 0 = lower band, 1 = upper band, 0.5 = midpoint.
EMA50 Distance(Price − EMA50) / EMA50 × 100Percentage distance of current price from the 50-period Exponential Moving Average. Positive = price above EMA50.
ATR (14)Avg of True Range over 14 periodsAverage True Range measures market volatility. Higher ATR = larger expected daily price movement.

Market Regime Classification

Each asset is assigned one of four market regimes based on the relationship between current price, EMA20, EMA50, RSI, and average daily volatility:

  • ↑ UptrendPrice above EMA20 and EMA50, RSI above 52, low volatility. Consistent directional movement upward.
  • ↓ DowntrendPrice below EMA20 and EMA50, RSI below 48, low volatility. Consistent directional movement downward.
  • → SidewaysNo clear trend — price near moving averages with RSI in neutral zone (48–52).
  • ⚡ ChaoticAverage daily swing exceeds 4% — high volatility with no clear directional bias.

AI-Generated Analysis

Market scenario analysis (bull, base, bear cases) and the written summary are generated by Claude (Anthropic), a large language model. The model receives a structured prompt containing the current price, percentage changes, and all computed technical indicators for each asset.

The AI is instructed to produce analysis in the style of a quantitative market analyst — using the provided data to identify conditions and plausible price targets. The three scenario probabilities (bull/base/bear) are model-generated estimates and must sum to 100%.

AI analysis is regenerated weekly per asset and cached in Redis to control API costs and ensure consistency. The generation date is not currently displayed but this feature is planned.

Important limitation

Large language models can produce plausible-sounding but incorrect analysis. AI-generated scenarios are not backtested, do not account for unknown future events, and should not be treated as forecasts with quantified accuracy. They represent one possible interpretation of the current technical picture.

What This Site Does Not Do

  • Provide personalised investment advice or recommendations
  • Predict future prices with any guaranteed accuracy
  • Account for tax implications of any transactions
  • Consider individual financial circumstances or risk tolerance
  • Offer brokerage, custody, or trading services

Disclaimer

All content on MarketForecast is provided for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing on this website constitutes financial, investment, legal, or tax advice.

Investing in cryptocurrencies and commodities involves substantial risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Price predictions and scenario analyses are speculative by nature and may not reflect future market conditions.

Always conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decision. MarketForecast is not a registered investment advisor and does not hold any financial regulatory licence.